Elite chess explained, move by move
Dates
17 Jan — 28 Jan 2026
Location
Wijk aan Zee, NL
Field
14 players
Format
Round-robin
Time control
Classical
Rounds
13 · 13 played
Decisive
45%
Avg. rating
2725

Round 3 · 20 Jan 2026

NiemannErdogmus

The Matchup

White
🇺🇸USA
1st · 1.5

Hans Moke Niemann

2794 Performance

Last 5 gamesW½
World#17FIDE Standard world ranking from the latest monthly classical rating list before this tournament started. List: 2026-03-01.Elo2725Age22

A young American grandmaster with fearless initiative, sharp opening research, and the competitive nerve to punch above his rating in elite fields.

Games in this event →
½–½Draw
Black
🇹🇷TUR
2nd · 1.0

Yagiz Kaan Erdogmus

2726 Performance · 0.5 behind leader

Last 5 games½½
World#37FIDE Standard world ranking from the latest monthly classical rating list before this tournament started. List: 2026-03-01.Elo2669Age17

A Turkish teenage grandmaster with fearless initiative, sharp opening homework, and the youthful nerve to challenge established stars.

Games in this event →

Head to head

Classical over-the-board (indexed)

Lifetime FIDE classical score unavailable (missing FIDE ID or cache not warmed).

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Key Moments


Caro-Kann Defense: Advance Variation, Short Variation
BlackErdogmusTUR2669
WhiteNiemannUSA2725
B
+0.5W

Classical factors on this position

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Checks, captures, and threats for the side to move

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The Moves

Other lines considered

From the crossroads before this move — engine and player perspectives.

Engine & players agree

Playable moves worth considering here.

Qb6d8b6
+0.5035%

MAIA 2200

PLAYER LIKELIHOOD35% would play this move

The Maia model estimates how often 2200-rated players choose this move from this position.

Attacking
Threatening
Board structure
cxd4c5d4
+0.4928%

MAIA 2200

PLAYER LIKELIHOOD28% would play this move

The Maia model estimates how often 2200-rated players choose this move from this position.

Attacking
Defending
Threatening
Nxd4!Critical

Complex tradeoff

Black gets the main benefit, but black creates more concrete threats.

Nc6b8c6
+0.7926%

MAIA 2200

PLAYER LIKELIHOOD26% would play this move

The Maia model estimates how often 2200-rated players choose this move from this position.

Threatening
Board structure
More active pieces for Black
dxc5!Critical

Loses material

White has doubled pawns on the c-file

Black gets the main benefit, but white's king faces more checks and king-zone pressure.